Norrby IF 1-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Norrby IF host Jonkopings Sodra at Borås Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF's home record at Borås Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Superettan games this season, Jonkopings Sodra have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Norrby IF at 1.10 PPG versus Jonkopings Sodra's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Norrby IF, 0 for Jonkopings Sodra and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Norrby IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Norrby IF trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Jonkopings Sodra trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 49% versus Jonkopings Sodra 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 40% | Jonkopings Sodra 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.26 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.712 / defence 0.818 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.835 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.272. Norrby IF's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Norrby IF games / 43 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 45% | Draw 31% | Jonkopings Sodra 25%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Jonkopings Sodra 4.00. Norrby IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Norrby IF are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norrby IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 20% | Jonkopings Sodra 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 45% | Draw 31% | Jonkopings Sodra 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Norrby IF 1.26 / Jonkopings Sodra 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.712 / def 0.818 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.835 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Jonkopings Sodra xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 19 July 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Norrby IF 1 - 1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 45% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (2 meetings): Norrby IF 2W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 0W.
What form are Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Norrby IF's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
45%
2.25
31%
3.26
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.12
0.87
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Norrby IF and 0.87 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Norrby IF have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 18W 11D 14L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra's form line: 13W 10D 20L from 43 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Norrby IF on 1.51 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Norrby IF have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L).
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 5W 4D 12L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Norrby IF are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.26 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 13W 10D 20L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.48 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Jonkopings Sodra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jonkopings Sodra in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Norrby IF's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Norrby IF
1
Draws
1
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2022, when Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 43%, Jonkopings Sodra 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Norrby IF) and 52% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Norrby IF have failed to score in 33% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Norrby IF's recent matches and 52% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norrby IF vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Norrby IF's recent games and 52% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 14, as Norrby IF and Jonkopings Sodra drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.26 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.87 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.71 / defence 0.82 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 45% | Draw 31% | Jonkopings Sodra 25%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 40%, Jonkopings Sodra 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norrby IF 1.51 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.