IF Brommapojkarna 5-0 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna host Dalkurd FF at Grimsta IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 July 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 0L across 6 games at Grimsta IP this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — IF Brommapojkarna are significantly better at Grimsta IP than their overall form suggests.
Dalkurd FF — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Dalkurd FF have posted 0W 3D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, IF Brommapojkarna have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Dalkurd FF in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 83% versus Dalkurd FF 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 75% | Dalkurd FF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 2.09 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.217 / defence 1.079 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.717 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.380. Data: 12 IF Brommapojkarna games / 12 Dalkurd FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | Draw 21% | Dalkurd FF 18%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Dalkurd FF 5.56. The model has a clear lean to IF Brommapojkarna (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Brommapojkarna are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 100% | Dalkurd FF 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jul 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | Draw 21% | Dalkurd FF 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 2.09 / Dalkurd FF 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.217 / def 1.079 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.717 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Dalkurd FF xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 July 2022 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF?
IF Brommapojkarna 5 - 0 Dalkurd FF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 60% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Dalkurd FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Dalkurd FF in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IF Brommapojkarna's attack rating (1.22) and Dalkurd FF's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalkurd FF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
60%
1.65
21%
4.71
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.16
1.07
Dalkurd FF xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
12%
8.07
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
2%
44.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.07 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IF Brommapojkarna come into this having played 12 games, going 5W 3D 4L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalkurd FF sit at 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dalkurd FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Dalkurd FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IF Brommapojkarna's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — IF Brommapojkarna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dalkurd FF have taken 0.40 points per game from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalkurd FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Dalkurd FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Dalkurd FF away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 2.20 PPG; Dalkurd FF away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Brommapojkarna and Dalkurd FF runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
0
Draws
0
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Dalkurd FF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2022, when Dalkurd FF 0-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Dalkurd FF?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Dalkurd FF see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 100%, Dalkurd FF 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for IF Brommapojkarna and 40% for Dalkurd FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalkurd FF in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Dalkurd FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 20% of Dalkurd FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 40% of Dalkurd FF's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Dalkurd FF tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dalkurd FF in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Brommapojkarna run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Dalkurd FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Dalkurd FF 5-0 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 2.09 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.07 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalkurd FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.22 / defence 1.08 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.72 / defence 1.19, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 60% | Draw 21% | Dalkurd FF 18%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 75%, Dalkurd FF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalkurd FF's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Dalkurd FF (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.