AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trelleborg make the trip to Tunavallen to face AFC Eskilstuna in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Monday 18 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
AFC Eskilstuna (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Tunavallen this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Trelleborg have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Trelleborg are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AFC Eskilstuna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Trelleborg in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AFC Eskilstuna lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2021, ended 0–4 with Trelleborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AFC Eskilstuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AFC Eskilstuna 60% and Trelleborg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 58% | Trelleborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 2.31 xG and Trelleborg 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.368 / defence 1.132 | Trelleborg attack 1.177 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.291. AFC Eskilstuna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.368 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 AFC Eskilstuna games / 43 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Draw 22% | Trelleborg 28%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Trelleborg 3.57. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trelleborg (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 60% | Trelleborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Monday 18 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Draw 22% | Trelleborg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 2.31 / Trelleborg 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.368 / def 1.132 | Trelleborg attack 1.177 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Trelleborg xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 July 2022 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg?
AFC Eskilstuna 1 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 50% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg?
Record (2 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 1W | Draws 0 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (1.18x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
50%
1.98
22%
4.65
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
4.03
1.72
Trelleborg xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.96
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
10%
10.04
Win to Nil
9%
11.06
3%
35.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.72 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Eskilstuna's recent record stands at 18W 8D 17L from 43 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 12L across 43 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for AFC Eskilstuna against 1.51 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AFC Eskilstuna have managed 12W 4D 5L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Trelleborg's away record stands at 6W 8D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.49 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AFC Eskilstuna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Trelleborg in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 17W 14D 12L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Trelleborg away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.90 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trelleborg won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AFC Eskilstuna
0
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 4, Trelleborg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2023, when Trelleborg 2-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for AFC Eskilstuna, 71% for Trelleborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 52% (Trelleborg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of AFC Eskilstuna's games and 71% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 52% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Eskilstuna edge out Trelleborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Trelleborg 1-0 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 2.31 xG and Trelleborg 1.72 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Eskilstuna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Trelleborg landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.37 / defence 1.13 against Trelleborg attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Draw 22% | Trelleborg 28%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 58%, Trelleborg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Trelleborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.44 PPG, Trelleborg 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.