Orebro SK 1-1 Ljungskile SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ljungskile SK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Orebro SK versus Ljungskile SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ljungskile SK's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ljungskile SK away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Orebro SK, 0.90 for Ljungskile SK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ljungskile SK in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Orebro SK 0W, Ljungskile SK 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2026, ended 2–3 with Ljungskile SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Ljungskile SK — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orebro SK 60% and Ljungskile SK 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 48% | Ljungskile SK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.24 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.781 / defence 0.998 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.973 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.366. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Orebro SK games / 25 Ljungskile SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 33% | Draw 30% | Ljungskile SK 37%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Ljungskile SK 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ljungskile SK at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ljungskile SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 60% | Ljungskile SK 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 33% | Draw 30% | Ljungskile SK 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Orebro SK 1.24 / Ljungskile SK 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.781 / def 0.998 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.973 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Ljungskile SK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Ljungskile SK xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK kick off?
Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK?
Orebro SK 1 - 1 Ljungskile SK.
Where is Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK part of?
Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 33% chance of winning, Ljungskile SK a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ljungskile SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 0 | Ljungskile SK 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Ljungskile SK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Ljungskile SK's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Ljungskile SK's attack (0.97x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ljungskile SK Win
33%
3.02
30%
3.35
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.57
1.33
Ljungskile SK xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.33 for Ljungskile SK, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orebro SK come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 9D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ljungskile SK sit at 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ljungskile SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.12 for Ljungskile SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Orebro SK's home form reads 3W 4D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Ljungskile SK have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (2W 6D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Ljungskile SK are on 1.32 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Ljungskile SK in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Ljungskile SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 5W 9D 11L in their last 25 games (0.96 PPG), while Ljungskile SK have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Ljungskile SK away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.08 PPG; Ljungskile SK away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Orebro SK
1
Draws
1
Ljungskile SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK?
From 2 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 0, Ljungskile SK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Orebro SK 1-1 Ljungskile SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK?
Ljungskile SK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Ljungskile SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 58%, Ljungskile SK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Orebro SK) and 58% (Ljungskile SK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 33% of games; Ljungskile SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Ljungskile SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Ljungskile SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Orebro SK's games and 67% of Ljungskile SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Orebro SK's recent games and 58% of Ljungskile SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ljungskile SK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Orebro SK and Ljungskile SK drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.24 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.33 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.78 / defence 1.00 against Ljungskile SK attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 33% | Draw 30% | Ljungskile SK 37%, with Ljungskile SK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 48%, Ljungskile SK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ljungskile SK's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 0.96 PPG, Ljungskile SK 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.