IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Falkenbergs FF travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's home record at Finnvedsvallen: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, Falkenbergs FF have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Falkenbergs FF are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for IFK Varnamo, 1 for Falkenbergs FF and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Falkenbergs FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IFK Varnamo trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Falkenbergs FF trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Varnamo 63% and Falkenbergs FF 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 61% | Falkenbergs FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.21 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.760 / defence 1.093 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.328 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Falkenbergs FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 IFK Varnamo games / 51 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 23% | Draw 25% | Falkenbergs FF 52%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Falkenbergs FF 1.92. Falkenbergs FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Falkenbergs FF as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Falkenbergs FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 50% | Falkenbergs FF 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 23% | Draw 25% | Falkenbergs FF 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.21 / Falkenbergs FF 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.760 / def 1.093 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.328 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Falkenbergs FF xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Finnvedsvallen.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 23% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Varnamo 2W | Draws 0 | Falkenbergs FF 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.76x the league average against Falkenbergs FF's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
23%
4.27
25%
4.05
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
3.09
1.88
Falkenbergs FF xG
4.27
23%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
4%
27.97
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.88 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 51 games, going 9W 11D 31L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Falkenbergs FF sit at 1.65 PPG from 51 outings (23W 15D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Falkenbergs FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 4W 9D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Falkenbergs FF have taken 1.36 points per game from 25 outings (9W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Falkenbergs FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.84 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Falkenbergs FF in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 9W 11D 31L in their last 51 games (0.75 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 23W 15D 13L in their last 51 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
Falkenbergs FF's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 0.84 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2021, when IFK Varnamo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
0
Draws
1
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF?
From 3 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Falkenbergs FF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Falkenbergs FF 3-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IFK Varnamo at 64%, Falkenbergs FF at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for IFK Varnamo and 76% for Falkenbergs FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Falkenbergs FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of IFK Varnamo's games and 76% of Falkenbergs FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of IFK Varnamo's matches and 76% of Falkenbergs FF's.
Do IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.