GIF Sundsvall 3-2 Ljungskile SK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ljungskile SK at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Ljungskile SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

GIF Sundsvall and Ljungskile SK meet at Idrottsparken in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

GIF Sundsvall (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.

GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Idrottsparken this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Ljungskile SK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ljungskile SK's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Ljungskile SK arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: GIF Sundsvall 0W, Ljungskile SK 1W, 0D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Ljungskile SK winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Ljungskile SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 38% versus Ljungskile SK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 58% | Ljungskile SK 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 0.99 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.714 / defence 1.292 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.954 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.394. GIF Sundsvall's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 GIF Sundsvall games / 24 Ljungskile SK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 20% | Draw 26% | Ljungskile SK 53%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Ljungskile SK 1.89. Ljungskile SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ljungskile SK are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ljungskile SK if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Ljungskile SK 60% BTTS from recent games.

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