Ljungskile SK 2-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates IK brage at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

IK brage make the trip to Skarsjövallen to face Ljungskile SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Ljungskile SK have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Skarsjövallen, Ljungskile SK have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ljungskile SK are significantly better at Skarsjövallen than their overall form suggests.

IK brage (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, IK brage have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Ljungskile SK, 0.90 for IK brage — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ljungskile SK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IK brage in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ljungskile SK 0W, IK brage 0W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Ljungskile SK half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ljungskile SK 62% and IK brage 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ljungskile SK 50% | IK brage 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.44 xG and IK brage 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.814 / defence 1.181 | IK brage attack 0.942 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.341. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Ljungskile SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Ljungskile SK games / 56 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 35% | Draw 28% | IK brage 37%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | IK brage 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ljungskile SK 60% | IK brage 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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