Ljungskile SK vs IK brage – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Ljungskile SK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

IK brage make the trip to to face Ljungskile SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Ljungskile SK have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at , Ljungskile SK have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

IK brage (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, IK brage have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Ljungskile SK's favour (1.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ljungskile SK 0W, IK brage 0W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Ljungskile SK half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ljungskile SK 57% and IK brage 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ljungskile SK 48% | IK brage 76%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.46 xG and IK brage 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.796 / defence 1.199 | IK brage attack 0.889 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. Ljungskile SK's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Ljungskile SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Ljungskile SK games / 51 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 38% | Draw 28% | IK brage 34%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | IK brage 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ljungskile SK at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ljungskile SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ljungskile SK 60% | IK brage 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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