Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oddevold make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season.
Oddevold have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Landskrona BoIS. A 0.60 PPG lead over Oddevold (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Oddevold in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Landskrona BoIS have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Oddevold managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Landskrona BoIS and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Oddevold — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 56% versus Oddevold 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 54% | Oddevold 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.21 xG and Oddevold 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.882 / defence 0.878 | Oddevold attack 1.025 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.337. Data: 48 Landskrona BoIS games / 48 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 36% | Draw 28% | Oddevold 36%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Oddevold 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Oddevold 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 36% | Draw 28% | Oddevold 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.21 / Oddevold 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.882 / def 0.878 | Oddevold attack 1.025 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Oddevold xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 1 Oddevold.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 36% chance of winning, Oddevold a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold?
Record (5 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 3W | Draws 2 | Oddevold 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Oddevold's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Oddevold's attack (1.02x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.63
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.41
1.20
Oddevold xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.20 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 48 games, going 19W 12D 17L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.52 PPG from 48 outings (19W 16D 13L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.52 for Oddevold. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 9W 8D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 1.70 points per game from 23 outings (10W 9D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.48 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Oddevold in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Oddevold
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 19W 12D 17L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 19W 16D 13L in their last 48 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Oddevold away?
Oddevold's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.52 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Oddevold been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Oddevold in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Oddevold — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Landskrona BoIS
3
Draws
0
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold?
From 6 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Oddevold have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 61%, Oddevold 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Landskrona BoIS) and 48% (Oddevold).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Oddevold in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Oddevold?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 52% of Oddevold's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 48% of Oddevold's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold finished level at 1-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.21 xG and Oddevold 1.20 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Oddevold attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 36% | Draw 28% | Oddevold 36%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 54%, Oddevold 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Oddevold's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.44 PPG, Oddevold 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.