GIF Sundsvall 1-0 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norrby IF at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Norrby IF make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Monday 31 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GIF Sundsvall have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at NP3 Arena, GIF Sundsvall have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Norrby IF's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Norrby IF are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Norrby IF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIF Sundsvall lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2026, ended 1–3 with Norrby IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Norrby IF half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 32% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 50% versus Norrby IF 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 54% | Norrby IF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.05 xG and Norrby IF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.760 / defence 1.325 | Norrby IF attack 0.696 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.313. GIF Sundsvall's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 GIF Sundsvall games / 20 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 30% | Draw 31% | Norrby IF 38%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Norrby IF 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Norrby IF as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Norrby IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Norrby IF 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 30% | Draw 31% | Norrby IF 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.05 / Norrby IF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.760 / def 1.325 | Norrby IF attack 0.696 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Norrby IF xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 31 August 2026 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 0 Norrby IF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 30% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF?
Record (3 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 2W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Norrby IF's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.70x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
30%
3.29
31%
3.18
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.26
1.21
Norrby IF xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.21 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 22 games, going 3W 3D 16L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Norrby IF sit at 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (5W 12D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 2W 2D 7L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Norrby IF have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (1W 7D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.32 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norrby IF in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 3D 16L in their last 22 games (0.55 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 5W 12D 5L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Norrby IF away?
Norrby IF's away record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 0.73 PPG; Norrby IF away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIF Sundsvall won 1-4 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Norrby IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Norrby IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-0 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for GIF Sundsvall, 64% for Norrby IF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (GIF Sundsvall) and 27% (Norrby IF).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall have failed to score in 27% of games; Norrby IF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 64% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 27% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Norrby IF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Norrby IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Norrby IF 1-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.05 xG and Norrby IF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Norrby IF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.76 / defence 1.32 against Norrby IF attack 0.70 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 30% | Draw 31% | Norrby IF 38%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 54%, Norrby IF 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Norrby IF's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.