Landskrona BoIS 0-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 27 as Landskrona BoIS welcome Vasteras SK FK to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 4D 2L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 2.10 (Vasteras SK FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Vasteras SK FK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Vasteras SK FK 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 62% versus Vasteras SK FK 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 55% | Vasteras SK FK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.45 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.021 / defence 1.023 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.189 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.290. Data: 56 Landskrona BoIS games / 56 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 34% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 40%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Vasteras SK FK 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 80% | Vasteras SK FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 34% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.45 / Vasteras SK FK 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.021 / def 1.023 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.189 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Vasteras SK FK xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Landskrona BoIS 0 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 34% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (5 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 2W | Draws 1 | Vasteras SK FK 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 1.02x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
34%
2.91
26%
3.86
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.02
1.57
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
7%
13.96
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.57 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 16D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.73 PPG from 56 outings (27W 16D 13L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.46 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 14W 9D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.50 points per game from 28 outings (12W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.70 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 16D 18L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 27W 16D 13L in their last 56 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.82 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
5
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Landskrona BoIS at 75%, Vasteras SK FK at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Landskrona BoIS) and 57% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 61% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 57% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasteras SK FK edge out Landskrona BoIS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Landskrona BoIS 0-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.45 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.57 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.19 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 34% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 40%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 55%, Vasteras SK FK 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.46 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.