AFC Eskilstuna 0-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Eskilstuna at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Tunavallen to take on AFC Eskilstuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 October 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's home record at Tunavallen: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Landskrona BoIS are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for AFC Eskilstuna, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 54% versus Landskrona BoIS 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 51% | Landskrona BoIS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.64 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.852 / defence 1.019 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.091 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.257. Data: 55 AFC Eskilstuna games / 55 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 42% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 32%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Landskrona BoIS 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
AFC Eskilstuna dominate the H2H record, yet Landskrona BoIS are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Landskrona BoIS (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 70% | Landskrona BoIS 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 42% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.64 / Landskrona BoIS 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.852 / def 1.019 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.091 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Landskrona BoIS xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS?
AFC Eskilstuna 0 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 42% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (5 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 3W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
42%
2.35
26%
3.91
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
3.04
1.40
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
6%
16.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.40 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Eskilstuna come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 12D 25L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.44 PPG from 55 outings (21W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.20 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AFC Eskilstuna's home form reads 12W 5D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.36 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 18W 12D 25L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 21W 16D 18L in their last 55 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.52 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 59%, Landskrona BoIS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 56% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of AFC Eskilstuna's games and 52% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 56% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat AFC Eskilstuna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat AFC Eskilstuna 0-1 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.64 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.40 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Eskilstuna fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.09 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 42% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 32%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 51%, Landskrona BoIS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.20 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.