Orgryte IS 0-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 50% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Trelleborg at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 22 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Orgryte IS have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Trelleborg stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Trelleborg have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orgryte IS at 1.10 PPG versus Trelleborg's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and Trelleborg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Trelleborg have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Orgryte IS.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Apr 2023, ended Orgryte IS 0–2 Trelleborg — a Trelleborg win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Trelleborg have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Orgryte IS trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Trelleborg trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 59% and Trelleborg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 57% | Trelleborg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.40 xG and Trelleborg 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.849 / defence 1.386 | Trelleborg attack 1.086 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.285. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 1.386 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trelleborg's projected output up. Data: built from Orgryte IS's last 56 games and Trelleborg's last 56.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 27% | Draw 23% | Trelleborg 50%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.66 | Draw 4.32 | Trelleborg 2.02. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.93) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Trelleborg 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and Trelleborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orgryte IS 70% (last 10 home games) | Trelleborg 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, matchday 27 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 27% | Draw 23% | Trelleborg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Orgryte IS 1.40 / Trelleborg 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.849 / def 1.386 | Trelleborg attack 1.086 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Trelleborg xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg FAQs
What time does Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Orgryte IS 0 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg part of?
Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg is a Superettan fixture (matchday 27) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 27% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Orgryte IS and Trelleborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.85x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Orgryte IS's last 56 games and Trelleborg's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
27%
3.66
23%
4.32
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.33
1.93
Trelleborg xG
3.66
27%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
14%
6.92
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
4%
25.29
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.93 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 18D 23L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.39 PPG from 56 outings (22W 12D 22L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.12 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Orgryte IS's home form reads 6W 11D 11L across their last 28 home games, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 28 away games (9W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.45 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 64%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
Orgryte IS (Home) vs Trelleborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orgryte IS
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg Form FAQs
What form are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 15W 18D 23L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Trelleborg away?
Trelleborg's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.04 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 25 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Orgryte IS have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
6
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Orgryte IS have won 2, Trelleborg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Trelleborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 September 2025: Trelleborg 0-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Orgryte IS at 61%, Trelleborg at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Orgryte IS and 64% for Trelleborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orgryte IS and Trelleborg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Orgryte IS's games and 71% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Orgryte IS's matches and 64% of Trelleborg's.
Do Orgryte IS and Trelleborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 68% of Trelleborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Orgryte IS 0-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.40 xG and Trelleborg 1.93 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.85 / defence 1.39 against Trelleborg attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 27% | Draw 23% | Trelleborg 50%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 57%, Trelleborg 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trelleborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.12 PPG, Trelleborg 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.