Landskrona BoIS 1-0 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Landskrona BoIS face Utsikten.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Utsikten in Superettan (matchday 5). Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utsikten's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Utsikten away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Utsikten edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Landskrona BoIS 1–5 Utsikten — a Utsikten win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Utsikten — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 62% versus Utsikten 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 57% | Utsikten 52%). Note also that Utsikten surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Landskrona BoIS recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.65 xG and Utsikten 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.254 / defence 0.994 | Utsikten attack 1.102 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 0.894. Landskrona BoIS carry an above-average attack rating of 1.254 — their 1.65 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Landskrona BoIS's last 34 games and Utsikten's last 34.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 52% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 22%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.91 | Draw 3.91 | Utsikten 4.56. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Landskrona BoIS 70% (last 10 home games) | Utsikten 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, matchday 5 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 52% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.65 / Utsikten 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.254 / def 0.994 | Utsikten attack 1.102 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.391 / away 0.894 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Utsikten xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten FAQs
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 0 Utsikten.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten is a Superettan fixture (matchday 5) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 52% chance of winning, Utsikten a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.25) and Utsikten's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (1.10x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Landskrona BoIS's last 34 games and Utsikten's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.91
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.63
0.98
Utsikten xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
23.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.98 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 22W 17D 21L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Utsikten's form line: 26W 14D 20L from 60 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.53 for Utsikten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.70 PPG from their last 30 home games (14W 9D 7L).
On the road, Utsikten have gone 13W 4D 13L from their last 30 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.50 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS (Home) vs Utsikten (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten Form FAQs
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 17D 21L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Utsikten away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.70 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Utsikten in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 20 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utsikten won Utsikten 5-1 Landskrona BoIS on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Utsikten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
4
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Utsikten have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2025: Utsikten 4-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 73%, Utsikten 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Landskrona BoIS) and 47% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Utsikten Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 43% of Utsikten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 47% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Utsikten matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 63% of Utsikten's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Utsikten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Utsikten 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.65 xG and Utsikten 0.98 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utsikten landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.25 / defence 0.99 against Utsikten attack 1.10 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 52% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 22%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 57%, Utsikten 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.38 PPG, Utsikten 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.