Degerfors IF 1-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 7D 0L. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Degerfors IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Landskrona BoIS's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Degerfors IF, 1.20 for Landskrona BoIS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Landskrona BoIS in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 60% and Landskrona BoIS 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 50% | Landskrona BoIS 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.26 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.039 / defence 1.039 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.998 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 0.874. Data: 5 Degerfors IF games / 35 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 26%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Landskrona BoIS 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 60% | Landskrona BoIS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Degerfors IF 1.26 / Landskrona BoIS 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.039 / def 1.039 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.998 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.296 / away 0.874 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Landskrona BoIS xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Degerfors IF 1 - 3 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 44% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Degerfors IF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Degerfors IF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 1.04x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (1.00x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.28
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.17
0.91
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
7%
13.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.91 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 7W 10D 13L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 11W 6D 13L from 30 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.30 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 5W 2D 8L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.40 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
1
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 2 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, Landskrona BoIS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Degerfors IF) and 67% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 40% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 53% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Degerfors IF's matches and 67% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Degerfors IF and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Degerfors IF 1-3 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.26 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.91 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 26%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 50%, Landskrona BoIS 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.03 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.