Orebro SK 2-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 46%, yet in-form IK brage provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orebro SK vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Orebro SK versus IK brage in Superettan (matchday 5). Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Orebro SK have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Orebro SK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
IK brage (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
IK brage away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IK brage are 0.50 PPG clear of Orebro SK over their recent games (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to IK brage, who have 4 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Orebro SK 1–2 IK brage — a IK brage win.
The H2H data backs the away side. IK brage have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
IK brage — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus IK brage 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 53% | IK brage 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.43 xG and IK brage 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.099 / defence 1.027 | IK brage attack 1.063 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 0.905. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 34 games and IK brage's last 34.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 46% | Draw 29% | IK brage 25%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.16 | Draw 3.50 | IK brage 3.99. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IK brage (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orebro SK 40% (last 10 home games) | IK brage 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, matchday 5 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 46% | Draw 29% | IK brage 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Orebro SK 1.43 / IK brage 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.099 / def 1.027 | IK brage attack 1.063 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.349 / away 0.905 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.99
IK brage xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orebro SK vs IK brage FAQs
What time does Orebro SK vs IK brage kick off?
Orebro SK vs IK brage kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Orebro SK 2 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Orebro SK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs IK brage part of?
Orebro SK vs IK brage is a Superettan fixture (matchday 5) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 46% chance of winning, IK brage a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Orebro SK and IK brage will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Orebro SK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orebro SK's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (1.06x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Orebro SK's last 34 games and IK brage's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.50
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.42
0.99
IK brage xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orebro SK vs IK brage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.99 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orebro SK come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 17D 25L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.38 PPG from 60 outings (23W 14D 23L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.38 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Orebro SK's home form reads 12W 10D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Orebro SK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.38 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
Orebro SK (Home) vs IK brage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orebro SK
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Orebro SK vs IK brage Form FAQs
What form are Orebro SK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while IK brage have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or IK brage away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.53 PPG; IK brage away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IK brage in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Orebro SK and IK brage, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 14 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won IK brage 3-0 Orebro SK on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
2
Draws
6
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Orebro SK vs IK brage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IK brage?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Orebro SK have won 2, IK brage have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and IK brage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: IK brage 3-3 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 40%, IK brage 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Orebro SK) and 53% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 37% of games; IK brage in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orebro SK vs IK brage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orebro SK and IK brage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 57% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Orebro SK and IK brage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Orebro SK's recent games and 53% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and IK brage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 73% of IK brage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orebro SK edge out IK brage 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat IK brage 2-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.43 xG and IK brage 0.99 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against IK brage attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 46% | Draw 29% | IK brage 25%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 53%, IK brage 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.18 PPG, IK brage 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.