Trelleborg 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Degerfors IF at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 29 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trelleborg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 3W 3D 4L at Vångavallen — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 3W 7D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Degerfors IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Trelleborg 1.60 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 57% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 57% | Degerfors IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.31 xG and Degerfors IF 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.863 / defence 1.118 | Degerfors IF attack 0.990 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 0.905. Data: 34 Trelleborg games / 4 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 43% | Draw 30% | Degerfors IF 28%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Degerfors IF 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 40% | Degerfors IF 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 29 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 43% | Draw 30% | Degerfors IF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Trelleborg 1.31 / Degerfors IF 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.863 / def 1.118 | Degerfors IF attack 0.990 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.358 / away 0.905 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Degerfors IF xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 April 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF?
Trelleborg 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF part of?
Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 43% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Trelleborg and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trelleborg and Degerfors IF in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.86x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.35
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.31
1.00
Degerfors IF xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.00 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 10W 9D 11L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Degerfors IF's form line: 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.30 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 4D 9L from 15 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.07 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Degerfors IF away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.40 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trelleborg
1
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Degerfors IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Degerfors IF 2-0 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 40%, Degerfors IF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Trelleborg) and 53% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Trelleborg have failed to score in 33% of games; Degerfors IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 67% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Trelleborg's matches and 53% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Trelleborg and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 5, as Trelleborg and Degerfors IF drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.31 xG and Degerfors IF 1.00 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.86 / defence 1.12 against Degerfors IF attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 43% | Draw 30% | Degerfors IF 28%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 57%, Degerfors IF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.30 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.