Landskrona BoIS 4-0 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host Sandviken at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Sandviken haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 1.50 (Sandviken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG and Sandviken 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.968 / defence 1.030 | Sandviken attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.168. Data: 30 Landskrona BoIS games / 0 Sandviken games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 56% | Draw 23% | Sandviken 21%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Sandviken 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 56% | Draw 23% | Sandviken 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.82 / Sandviken 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.968 / def 1.030 | Sandviken attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sandviken xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Landskrona BoIS 4 - 0 Sandviken.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 56% chance of winning, Sandviken a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Sandviken (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (0.97) and Sandviken's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.36
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.84
1.02
Sandviken xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
3%
29.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.02 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. Sandviken haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sandviken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Early Season
Sandviken
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Landskrona BoIS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
1
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
From 5 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Sandviken have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sandviken 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Sandviken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 50% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 50% of Sandviken's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Landskrona BoIS run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sandviken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Sandviken 4-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG and Sandviken 1.02 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandviken landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Sandviken attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 56% | Draw 23% | Sandviken 21%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 100%, Sandviken 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Landskrona BoIS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Landskrona BoIS scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.