Orgryte IS 2-3 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Sandviken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Relegation Round sees Sandviken travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, Orgryte IS have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Superettan matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Sandviken have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Orgryte IS are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 0 for Sandviken and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Orgryte IS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.80 xG and Sandviken 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.086 / defence 0.821 | Sandviken attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.228. Data: 60 Orgryte IS games / 0 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 59% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 17%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Sandviken 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 59% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Orgryte IS 1.80 / Sandviken 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.086 / def 0.821 | Sandviken attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Sandviken xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Sandviken kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Sandviken kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Orgryte IS 2 - 3 Sandviken.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Sandviken part of?
Orgryte IS vs Sandviken is a Relegation Round fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 59% chance of winning, Sandviken a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Orgryte IS and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Sandviken?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | Sandviken 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Sandviken in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Sandviken (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.09x the league average against Sandviken's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.13
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.65
0.86
Sandviken xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
3%
35.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.86 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Sandviken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Orgryte IS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sandviken's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Sandviken, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Orgryte IS are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandviken.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Sandviken in 0%.
Defensively: Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Early Season
Sandviken
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Orgryte IS or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Sandviken in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2025, when Orgryte IS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
2
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Sandviken?
From 6 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, Sandviken have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2025, when Sandviken 1-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Sandviken?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Sandviken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 0% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 0% of Sandviken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Sandviken tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandviken defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Orgryte IS 2-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Relegation Round, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.80 xG and Sandviken 0.86 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sandviken outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.09 / defence 0.82 against Sandviken attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 59% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 17%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Sandviken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 0%, Sandviken 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Sandviken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orgryte IS shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandviken scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.