Orebro SK 0-1 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 57%, yet in-form Skövde AIK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orebro SK host Skövde AIK at Behrn Arena in Superettan (matchday 1). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Orebro SK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Skövde AIK have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Skövde AIK away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Skövde AIK — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Orebro SK, 1 for Skövde AIK and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Orebro SK 5–3 Skövde AIK — a Orebro SK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Skövde AIK in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus Skövde AIK 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 53% | Skövde AIK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.98 xG and Skövde AIK 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.082 / defence 0.944 | Skövde AIK attack 1.039 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.159. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 30 games and Skövde AIK's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 57% | Draw 22% | Skövde AIK 22%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.76 | Draw 4.61 | Skövde AIK 4.65. The model has a clear lean to Orebro SK (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Skövde AIK (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Orebro SK's last 10 home games and Skövde AIK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orebro SK 40% (last 10 home games) | Skövde AIK 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Orebro SK 30 games, Skövde AIK 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 1 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 57% | Draw 22% | Skövde AIK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Orebro SK 1.98 / Skövde AIK 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.082 / def 0.944 | Skövde AIK attack 1.039 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Skövde AIK xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK FAQs
What time does Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Orebro SK 0 - 1 Skövde AIK.
Where is Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK part of?
Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 1) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 57% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Orebro SK and Skövde AIK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (1.08) and Skövde AIK's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Skövde AIK's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Orebro SK's last 30 games and Skövde AIK's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.61
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
3.11
1.14
Skövde AIK xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
3%
33.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.14 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Skövde AIK, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 23L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.18 PPG, Skövde AIK on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 12W 10D 8L from their last 30 home games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Skövde AIK's away record stands at 6W 8D 16L across their last 30 away games, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.37 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Skövde AIK
Current Season
Orebro SK (Home) vs Skövde AIK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orebro SK
Current Season
Skövde AIK
Current Season
❓ Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK Form FAQs
What form are Orebro SK and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Skövde AIK away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.53 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orebro SK's record when hosting Skövde AIK specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
2
Draws
2
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Skövde AIK?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Orebro SK have won 2, Skövde AIK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Skövde AIK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 November 2024: Skövde AIK 2-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 40%, Skövde AIK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Orebro SK) and 67% (Skövde AIK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 37% of games; Skövde AIK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orebro SK vs Skövde AIK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orebro SK and Skövde AIK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 60% of Skövde AIK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Orebro SK and Skövde AIK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Orebro SK's recent games and 67% of Skövde AIK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Skövde AIK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 77% of Skövde AIK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Skövde AIK defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Orebro SK 0-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.98 xG and Skövde AIK 1.14 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orebro SK fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Skövde AIK attack 1.04 / defence 1.11, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 57% | Draw 22% | Skövde AIK 22%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Skövde AIK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 53%, Skövde AIK 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.18 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Skövde AIK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.