Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 43%, yet in-form Norrby IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Norrby IF travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS in Superettan (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 2 matches, Norrby IF stand at 1W 1D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Norrby IF are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 100% of Norrby IF's (from Landskrona BoIS's last 10 home games and Norrby IF's last 2 games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 0 for Norrby IF and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2022, ended Landskrona BoIS 3–2 Norrby IF — a Landskrona BoIS win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.50 xG and Norrby IF 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.884 / defence 1.032 | Norrby IF attack 0.898 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.342. Data: built from Landskrona BoIS's last 36 games and Norrby IF's last 6.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 43% | Draw 25% | Norrby IF 32%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.32 | Draw 3.94 | Norrby IF 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Norrby IF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Landskrona BoIS's last 10 home games and Norrby IF's last 2 games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, matchday 7 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 43% | Draw 25% | Norrby IF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.50 / Norrby IF 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.884 / def 1.032 | Norrby IF attack 0.898 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Norrby IF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF FAQs
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF is a Superettan fixture (matchday 7) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 43% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 0.88x the league average against Norrby IF's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Landskrona BoIS's last 36 games and Norrby IF's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
43%
2.32
25%
3.94
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.74
1.24
Norrby IF xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.24 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five.
Norrby IF's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D.
Put side by side, Norrby IF are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Landskrona BoIS.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Norrby IF in 100%.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Early Season
Norrby IF
Early Season
Landskrona BoIS (Home) vs Norrby IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Landskrona BoIS
Early Season
Norrby IF
Early Season
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF Form FAQs
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Norrby IF specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Landskrona BoIS
3
Draws
0
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Norrby IF have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Norrby IF 1-3 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 100% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 50% of Norrby IF's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 50% of Norrby IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF finished level at 1-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.50 xG and Norrby IF 1.24 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Norrby IF attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 43% | Draw 25% | Norrby IF 32%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 100%, Norrby IF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Landskrona BoIS conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Norrby IF managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.