Landskrona BoIS 3-3 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host IF Brommapojkarna at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona BoIS have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 2.25 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.095 / defence 1.167 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.915 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.350. IF Brommapojkarna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Landskrona BoIS games / 6 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 56% | Draw 20% | IF Brommapojkarna 24%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | IF Brommapojkarna 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 56% | Draw 20% | IF Brommapojkarna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Landskrona BoIS 2.25 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.095 / def 1.167 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.915 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.44
IF Brommapojkarna xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Landskrona BoIS 3 - 3 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 56% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IF Brommapojkarna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Landskrona BoIS home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 1.09x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
56%
1.80
20%
4.89
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.70
1.44
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
11%
9.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
3%
39.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.44 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 2 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2022, when IF Brommapojkarna 3-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Landskrona BoIS and IF Brommapojkarna share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 7, as Landskrona BoIS and IF Brommapojkarna drew 3-3 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 2.25 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.44 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.09 / defence 1.17 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.92 / defence 1.31, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 56% | Draw 20% | IF Brommapojkarna 24%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.