IF Brommapojkarna 4-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trelleborg make the trip to Grimsta IP to face IF Brommapojkarna in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trelleborg (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Trelleborg's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.72 xG and Trelleborg 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.079 / defence 1.075 | Trelleborg attack 0.965 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.390. Data: 5 IF Brommapojkarna games / 35 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 44% | Draw 23% | Trelleborg 32%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Trelleborg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 44% | Draw 23% | Trelleborg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.72 / Trelleborg 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.079 / def 1.075 | Trelleborg attack 0.965 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Trelleborg xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg?
IF Brommapojkarna 4 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 44% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Trelleborg in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Trelleborg away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 1.08x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.96x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.28
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.16
1.44
Trelleborg xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
6%
17.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.44 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
0
Draws
0
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Trelleborg?
From 2 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Trelleborg have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2022, when Trelleborg 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Trelleborg?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IF Brommapojkarna cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Trelleborg 4-2 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.72 xG and Trelleborg 1.44 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.08 / defence 1.07 against Trelleborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.19, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 44% | Draw 23% | Trelleborg 32%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.