Orebro SK 2-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Osters IF travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Orebro SK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Osters IF — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orebro SK at 1.80 PPG versus Osters IF's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 53% versus Osters IF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 57% | Osters IF 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.87 xG and Osters IF 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.860 / defence 1.008 | Osters IF attack 1.204 / defence 0.679. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.398. Osters IF's defence strength of 0.679 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Osters IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Orebro SK games / 36 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 19% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 57%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | Osters IF 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Orebro SK 80% | Osters IF 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 19% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Orebro SK 0.87 / Osters IF 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.860 / def 1.008 | Osters IF attack 1.204 / def 0.679 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Osters IF xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Osters IF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Osters IF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Orebro SK 2 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Osters IF part of?
Orebro SK vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 19% chance of winning, Osters IF a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Orebro SK and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Osters IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and Osters IF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Osters IF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.86x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
19%
5.24
24%
4.18
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.57
1.70
Osters IF xG
5.24
19%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
3%
28.62
24%
4.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.70 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 12W 6D 12L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. Orebro SK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Osters IF's form line: 12W 10D 8L from 30 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.40 PPG, Osters IF on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osters IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.10 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
Osters IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Osters IF away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.80 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Osters IF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Osters IF runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Osters IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
3
Draws
3
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Osters IF?
From 7 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Osters IF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Osters IF 0-0 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 60%, Osters IF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Orebro SK) and 27% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Osters IF in 33%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 33% of games; Osters IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 40% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Orebro SK's recent games and 27% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Osters IF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orebro SK defy the odds to beat Osters IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Osters IF 2-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.87 xG and Osters IF 1.70 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Osters IF attack 1.20 / defence 0.68, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 19% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 57%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Orebro SK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, Osters IF 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.40 PPG, Osters IF 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.