Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 24 as Landskrona BoIS welcome GIF Sundsvall to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.

GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Landskrona BoIS have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, GIF Sundsvall 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2026, ended 1–2 with GIF Sundsvall winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 59% versus GIF Sundsvall 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 51% | GIF Sundsvall 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.62 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.867 / defence 0.860 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.592 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Landskrona BoIS games / 51 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 14%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.67 | Draw 3.70 | GIF Sundsvall 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | GIF Sundsvall 20% BTTS from recent games.

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