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Poisson rates Falkenbergs FF at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF encounter.

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Match Analysis

Ljungskile SK host Falkenbergs FF at in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Ljungskile SK — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ljungskile SK have posted 3W 1D 3L at — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Falkenbergs FF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Falkenbergs FF's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Falkenbergs FF — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Ljungskile SK have won 2, Falkenbergs FF 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Season Statistics

Ljungskile SK's full-season record stands at 4W 4D 6L from 14 games. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 2-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 14 games (21%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game.

Across 14 matches this season, Falkenbergs FF have gone 8W 4D 2L. Attacking returns: 2.0 goals per game; defensive: 1.4 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 14 games (29%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Falkenbergs FF have been the more prolific side this season at 2.00 goals per game compared to 1.30 for the hosts. Ljungskile SK are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Penalty activity: Ljungskile SK 1/1 vs Falkenbergs FF 3/3 this season.

Table Context

The standings have Falkenbergs FF (1st, 28 pts) 11 places above Ljungskile SK (12th, 16 pts) — a 12-point gap in Superettan.

At home this season, Ljungskile SK have gone 3W 1D 3L. Falkenbergs FF have gone 4W 2D 1L on their travels. Falkenbergs FF: Promotion - Allsvenskan.

In-Play Profile

Ljungskile SK in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Falkenbergs FF in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ljungskile SK 57% and Falkenbergs FF 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ljungskile SK 43% | Falkenbergs FF 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.56 xG and Falkenbergs FF 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.955 / defence 1.147 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.423 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.458. Falkenbergs FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — the away xG of 2.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Ljungskile SK games / 44 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 25% | Draw 19% | Falkenbergs FF 56%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 4.00 | Draw 5.26 | Falkenbergs FF 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Falkenbergs FF (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 2.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Falkenbergs FF at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ljungskile SK 57% | Falkenbergs FF 100% BTTS from recent games.

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