Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ljungskile SK host Falkenbergs FF at in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ljungskile SK — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ljungskile SK have posted 4W 1D 5L at — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Falkenbergs FF stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ljungskile SK at 1.30 PPG versus Falkenbergs FF's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ljungskile SK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Falkenbergs FF in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ljungskile SK have won 0, Falkenbergs FF 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ljungskile SK in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Falkenbergs FF in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ljungskile SK 57% and Falkenbergs FF 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ljungskile SK 48% | Falkenbergs FF 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.27 xG and Falkenbergs FF 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.796 / defence 1.199 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.332 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. Ljungskile SK's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Falkenbergs FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — the away xG of 2.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Ljungskile SK games / 51 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 22% | Draw 23% | Falkenbergs FF 55%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Falkenbergs FF 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Falkenbergs FF (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Falkenbergs FF at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ljungskile SK 60% | Falkenbergs FF 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 22% | Draw 23% | Falkenbergs FF 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Ljungskile SK 1.27 / Falkenbergs FF 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.796 / def 1.199 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.332 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Falkenbergs FF xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 22% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ljungskile SK and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (1 meetings): Ljungskile SK 0W | Draws 1 | Falkenbergs FF 0W.
What form are Ljungskile SK and Falkenbergs FF in?
Ljungskile SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ljungskile SK's attack at 0.80x the league average against Falkenbergs FF's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus Ljungskile SK's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
22%
4.52
23%
4.33
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
3.34
2.07
Falkenbergs FF xG
4.52
22%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
13%
7.90
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
3%
35.70
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 2.07 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Ljungskile SK have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 6W 6D 9L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ljungskile SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Falkenbergs FF's form line: 11W 5D 5L from 21 games, 1.81 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Falkenbergs FF are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ljungskile SK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ljungskile SK have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (4W 1D 5L).
On the road, Falkenbergs FF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ljungskile SK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.95 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF in 81%.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Blended
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ljungskile SK and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
Ljungskile SK have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 11W 5D 5L in their last 21 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ljungskile SK at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
Falkenbergs FF's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ljungskile SK at home: 1.30 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Ljungskile SK
1
Draws
0
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Falkenbergs FF?
From 1 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 0, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Falkenbergs FF 1-1 Ljungskile SK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ljungskile SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ljungskile SK at 60%, Falkenbergs FF at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ljungskile SK and 100% for Falkenbergs FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ljungskile SK have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ljungskile SK play Falkenbergs FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ljungskile SK's games and 100% of Falkenbergs FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ljungskile SK's matches and 100% of Falkenbergs FF's.
Do Ljungskile SK and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
Ljungskile SK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.