Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Helsingborg travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Landskrona BoIS at 1.50 PPG versus Helsingborg's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Helsingborg in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Helsingborg 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2026, ended 3–0 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 59% versus Helsingborg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 51% | Helsingborg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.62 xG and Helsingborg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.868 / defence 0.861 | Helsingborg attack 1.017 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. Helsingborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Landskrona BoIS games / 51 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 25%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Helsingborg 4.00. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Helsingborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.62 / Helsingborg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.868 / def 0.861 | Helsingborg attack 1.017 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Helsingborg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 47% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg?
Record (9 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 4W | Draws 2 | Helsingborg 3W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.68
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.75
1.13
Helsingborg xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
5%
19.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.13 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 15D 17L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Helsingborg sit at 1.31 PPG from 51 outings (18W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.41 PPG, Helsingborg on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 9W 10D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Helsingborg have taken 1.20 points per game from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.49 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 19W 15D 17L in their last 51 games (1.41 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 18W 13D 20L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Helsingborg away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.48 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 11 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2026, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
3
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Helsingborg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2026, when Helsingborg 0-3 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 64%, Helsingborg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Landskrona BoIS) and 56% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 56% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 56% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.