IK brage 2-4 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates IK brage at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IK brage face Ostersunds FK.

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Analysis & Preview

Ostersunds FK travel to Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage in Superettan (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, IK brage stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

IK brage's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ostersunds FK — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, Ostersunds FK have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IK brage 1.20 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for IK brage, 3 for Ostersunds FK and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended IK brage 0–1 Ostersunds FK — a Ostersunds FK win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

IK brage in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 53% versus Ostersunds FK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 50% | Ostersunds FK 48%). Note also that Ostersunds FK surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while IK brage recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.83 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.190 / defence 1.313 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.866 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.340. IK brage's defence rating of 1.313 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ostersunds FK's projected output up. Data: built from IK brage's last 36 games and Ostersunds FK's last 36.

Result probabilities: IK brage 45% | Draw 23% | Ostersunds FK 32%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.22 | Draw 4.43 | Ostersunds FK 3.09. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (IK brage's last 10 home games and Ostersunds FK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IK brage 90% (last 10 home games) | Ostersunds FK 20% (last 10 away games).

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