Vasteras SK FK 2-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIF Sundsvall make the trip to Hitachi Energy Arena to face Vasteras SK FK in Superettan (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Vasteras SK FK's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Vasteras SK FK at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIF Sundsvall away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Vasteras SK FK's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of GIF Sundsvall's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, GIF Sundsvall edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Jul 2023, ended Vasteras SK FK 3–1 GIF Sundsvall — a Vasteras SK FK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 56% versus GIF Sundsvall 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 58% | GIF Sundsvall 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.82 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.908 / defence 0.702 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.914 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.209. GIF Sundsvall's defence rating of 1.312 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vasteras SK FK's projected output up. Vasteras SK FK have a tight defence (rating 0.702), which is pulling GIF Sundsvall's projected output down. Data: built from Vasteras SK FK's last 52 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 22.
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 61% | Draw 24% | GIF Sundsvall 14%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.63 | Draw 4.12 | GIF Sundsvall 6.94. The model has a clear lean to Vasteras SK FK (61%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vasteras SK FK 20% (last 10 home games) | GIF Sundsvall 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, matchday 23 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 61% | Draw 24% | GIF Sundsvall 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.82 / GIF Sundsvall 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.908 / def 0.702 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.914 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
0.78
GIF Sundsvall xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall FAQs
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall is a Superettan fixture (matchday 23) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 61% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and GIF Sundsvall will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (0.91) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.91x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from Vasteras SK FK's last 52 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.12
14%
6.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.60
0.78
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
6.94
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
2%
43.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.78 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 52 games, going 23W 16D 13L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, GIF Sundsvall sit at 0.77 PPG from 52 outings (11W 7D 34L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 12W 10D 3L across their last 25 home games, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, GIF Sundsvall have taken 0.52 points per game from their last 25 away games (3W 4D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.10 scored and 2.31 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Vasteras SK FK (Home) vs GIF Sundsvall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall Form FAQs
What form are Vasteras SK FK and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 23W 16D 13L in their last 52 games (1.63 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 7D 34L in their last 52 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.84 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.52 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 18 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and GIF Sundsvall?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasteras SK FK have won 4, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Vasteras SK FK 2-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and GIF Sundsvall?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 52%, GIF Sundsvall 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Vasteras SK FK) and 56% (GIF Sundsvall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vasteras SK FK and GIF Sundsvall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 48% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vasteras SK FK and GIF Sundsvall matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 56% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and GIF Sundsvall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 84% of GIF Sundsvall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat GIF Sundsvall 2-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.82 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.78 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.91 / defence 0.70 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 61% | Draw 24% | GIF Sundsvall 14%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 58%, GIF Sundsvall 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.