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Poisson model rates IK brage at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

IK brage host Landskrona BoIS at Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 4W 2D 4L at Domnarvsvallen — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — IK brage at 1.00 PPG versus Landskrona BoIS's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for IK brage, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

IK brage in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 52% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 49% | Landskrona BoIS 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.70 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.135 / defence 1.460 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.855 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.208. Data: 59 IK brage games / 59 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: IK brage 42% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 34%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Landskrona BoIS 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 90% | Landskrona BoIS 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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