IK brage 4-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Landskrona BoIS at Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 4W 2D 4L at Domnarvsvallen — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IK brage at 1.00 PPG versus Landskrona BoIS's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IK brage, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 52% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 49% | Landskrona BoIS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.70 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.135 / defence 1.460 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.855 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.208. Data: 59 IK brage games / 59 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 42% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 34%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Landskrona BoIS 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 90% | Landskrona BoIS 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 42% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG IK brage 1.70 / Landskrona BoIS 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.135 / def 1.460 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.855 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: IK brage (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Landskrona BoIS xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
IK brage 4 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 42% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IK brage and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (7 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 4 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS in?
IK brage (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
42%
2.39
24%
4.11
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.21
1.51
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
6%
16.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for IK brage and 1.51 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage come into this having played 59 games, going 21W 16D 22L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.47 PPG from 59 outings (24W 15D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.34 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IK brage's home form reads 11W 6D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (11W 5D 13L).
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.39 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 21W 16D 22L in their last 59 games (1.34 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 15D 20L in their last 59 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
IK brage's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.34 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IK brage
5
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when IK brage 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 55%, Landskrona BoIS 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (IK brage) and 55% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of IK brage's games and 55% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of IK brage's matches and 55% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do IK brage and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IK brage run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Landskrona BoIS 4-1 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.70 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.51 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.14 / defence 1.46 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 42% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 34%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 49%, Landskrona BoIS 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.34 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.