Landskrona BoIS 2-2 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oddevold make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Monday 3 November 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Oddevold have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Oddevold away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.80 for Oddevold. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Landskrona BoIS have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Oddevold managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2025, ended 2–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Landskrona BoIS and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Oddevold — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 55% versus Oddevold 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 55% | Oddevold 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.03 xG and Oddevold 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.871 / defence 1.085 | Oddevold attack 0.977 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.201. Oddevold's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Landskrona BoIS games / 58 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 29% | Draw 29% | Oddevold 41%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Oddevold 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Landskrona BoIS dominate the H2H record, yet Oddevold are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oddevold at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oddevold if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Oddevold 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 29% | Draw 29% | Oddevold 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.03 / Oddevold 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.871 / def 1.085 | Oddevold attack 0.977 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Oddevold xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 2 Oddevold.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 29% chance of winning, Oddevold a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold?
Record (3 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 3W | Draws 0 | Oddevold 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Oddevold (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Oddevold's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Oddevold's attack (0.98x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
29%
3.41
29%
3.42
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.30
1.27
Oddevold xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.27 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 58 games, going 24W 14D 20L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.43 PPG from 58 outings (21W 20D 17L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.43 for Oddevold. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 13W 9D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 1.48 points per game from 29 outings (11W 10D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.26 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Oddevold
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 21W 20D 17L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Oddevold away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.66 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Oddevold been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Oddevold in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Oddevold — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Landskrona BoIS
3
Draws
0
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold?
From 6 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Oddevold have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 55%, Oddevold 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Landskrona BoIS) and 48% (Oddevold).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Oddevold in 38%; Oddevold in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Oddevold?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 48% of Oddevold's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 48% of Oddevold's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 29, as Landskrona BoIS and Oddevold drew 2-2 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.03 xG and Oddevold 1.27 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Oddevold attack 0.98 / defence 0.77, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 29% | Draw 29% | Oddevold 41%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 55%, Oddevold 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Oddevold's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.48 PPG, Oddevold 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.