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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Oddevold make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Monday 3 November 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Landskrona BoIS (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Oddevold have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Oddevold away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.80 for Oddevold. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Landskrona BoIS have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Oddevold managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2025, ended 2–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Landskrona BoIS and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Oddevold — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 55% versus Oddevold 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 55% | Oddevold 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.03 xG and Oddevold 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.871 / defence 1.085 | Oddevold attack 0.977 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.201. Oddevold's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Landskrona BoIS games / 58 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 29% | Draw 29% | Oddevold 41%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Oddevold 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

Landskrona BoIS dominate the H2H record, yet Oddevold are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Oddevold at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oddevold if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Oddevold 30% BTTS from recent games.

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