Orgryte IS 0-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 57%, yet in-form Landskrona BoIS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Tuesday 6 June 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Landskrona BoIS have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Landskrona BoIS are 0.70 PPG clear of Orgryte IS in recent Superettan fixtures (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 63% and Landskrona BoIS 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 52% | Landskrona BoIS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.69 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.178 / defence 1.031 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.741 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.107. Data: 40 Orgryte IS games / 40 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 57% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 19%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Landskrona BoIS 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Landskrona BoIS (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Orgryte IS 50% | Landskrona BoIS 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jun 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 57% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Orgryte IS 1.69 / Landskrona BoIS 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.178 / def 1.031 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.741 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Landskrona BoIS xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 6 June 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Orgryte IS 0 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 57% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (4 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.18x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.74x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.16
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.53
0.85
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
28.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.85 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 18W 25D 17L from 60 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 20L across 60 games — 1.47 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.47 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 8W 15D 7L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 5W 9D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.35 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 18W 25D 17L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.30 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 30 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 60%, Landskrona BoIS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Orgryte IS) and 50% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 27% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Orgryte IS's games and 53% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Orgryte IS 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.69 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.85 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orgryte IS fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.18 / defence 1.03 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 57% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 19%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Landskrona BoIS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 52%, Landskrona BoIS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.32 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.