IFK Varnamo 0-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Varnamo face Orebro SK.

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Full Analysis

Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus Orebro SK in Superettan (matchday 7). Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

IFK Varnamo (all games): 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

IFK Varnamo at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Orebro SK's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Orebro SK's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for IFK Varnamo, 1.40 for Orebro SK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Trading Data

IFK Varnamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 47% versus Orebro SK 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 41% | Orebro SK 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: IFK Varnamo surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Orebro SK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.41 xG and Orebro SK 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 1.187 / defence 0.918 | Orebro SK attack 0.748 / defence 0.742. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.342. Orebro SK bring a tight defence (rating 0.742, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling IFK Varnamo's projected output down. Orebro SK's attack rating of 0.748 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 6 games and Orebro SK's last 36.

Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 48% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 25%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.07 | Draw 3.69 | Orebro SK 4.07. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: IFK Varnamo 40% (last 10 home games) | Orebro SK 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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