IFK Norrkoping 1-1 United Nordic – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Norrkoping face United Nordic.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
United Nordic travel to Norrkopings Idrottspark to take on IFK Norrkoping in Superettan (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, IFK Norrkoping have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, IFK Norrkoping have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 2.45 xG and United Nordic 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.204 / defence 1.207 | United Nordic attack 0.945 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.340. United Nordic's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IFK Norrkoping's projected output up. IFK Norrkoping's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing United Nordic's projected output up. Data: built from IFK Norrkoping's last 6 games and United Nordic's last 6.
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 58% | Draw 19% | United Nordic 23%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 1.73 | Draw 5.29 | United Nordic 4.31. The model has a clear lean to IFK Norrkoping (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (2.45 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic | Competition: Superettan, matchday 7 | Venue: Norrkopings Idrottspark • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 58% | Draw 19% | United Nordic 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG IFK Norrkoping 2.45 / United Nordic 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.204 / def 1.207 | United Nordic attack 0.945 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.53
United Nordic xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic FAQs
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Norrkopings Idrottspark.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 1 United Nordic.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic being played?
The match is being played at Norrkopings Idrottspark.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic is a Superettan fixture (matchday 7) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 58% chance of winning, United Nordic a 23% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and United Nordic will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 1.20x the league average against United Nordic's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, United Nordic's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Norrkoping's last 6 games and United Nordic's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
58%
1.73
19%
5.29
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
3.98
1.53
United Nordic xG
1.73
58%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
9%
11.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
2%
49.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and United Nordic expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.53 for United Nordic, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
United Nordic
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
IFK Norrkoping (Home) vs United Nordic (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
United Nordic
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2026. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IFK Norrkoping
1
Draws
0
United Nordic
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs United Nordic H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and United Nordic?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, United Nordic have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and United Nordic last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: United Nordic 1-3 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and United Nordic?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / United Nordic away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IFK Norrkoping and United Nordic share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping and United Nordic finished level at 1-1 at Norrkopings Idrottspark, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 2.45 xG and United Nordic 1.53 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.20 / defence 1.21 against United Nordic attack 0.94 / defence 1.30, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 58% | Draw 19% | United Nordic 23%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.