GIF Sundsvall 0-4 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 45%, yet in-form Osters IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Osters IF travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Monday 15 June 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at NP3 Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Osters IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Osters IF's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Osters IF's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of GIF Sundsvall's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Osters IF have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for GIF Sundsvall.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Osters IF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Osters IF have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 57% versus Osters IF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | Osters IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.98 xG and Osters IF 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.957 / defence 1.345 | Osters IF attack 0.871 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.440. Osters IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 GIF Sundsvall games / 11 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 45% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 33%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Osters IF 3.03. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osters IF (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Osters IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 15 Jun 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 45% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.98 / Osters IF 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.957 / def 1.345 | Osters IF attack 0.871 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Osters IF xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 15 June 2026 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 4 Osters IF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 45% chance of winning, Osters IF a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF?
Record (6 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 4W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Osters IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
45%
2.22
22%
4.65
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.66
1.69
Osters IF xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
5%
21.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.69 for Osters IF, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 7D 12L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.80 PPG from 30 outings (15W 9D 6L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. Osters IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Osters IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 4W 5D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 1.53 points per game from 15 outings (6W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.83 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Osters IF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 15W 9D 6L in their last 30 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Osters IF away?
Osters IF's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.13 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Osters IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osters IF have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Osters IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
6
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF?
From 8 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Osters IF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when Osters IF 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 60%, Osters IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (GIF Sundsvall) and 47% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall have failed to score in 27% of games; Osters IF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 60% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 47% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 0-4 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat GIF Sundsvall 0-4 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.98 xG and Osters IF 1.69 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Osters IF outscored their 1.69 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.96 / defence 1.34 against Osters IF attack 0.87 / defence 1.43, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 45% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 33%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Osters IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, Osters IF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.