GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours IFK Varnamo (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as GIF Sundsvall face IFK Varnamo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo meet at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Varnamo have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
IFK Varnamo arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IFK Varnamo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 3 for IFK Varnamo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
IFK Varnamo — key trading statistics (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 51% versus IFK Varnamo 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 51% | IFK Varnamo 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.36 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.760 / defence 1.239 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.911 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. GIF Sundsvall's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 GIF Sundsvall games / 21 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 34% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 38%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | IFK Varnamo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | IFK Varnamo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 34% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.36 / IFK Varnamo 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.760 / def 1.239 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.911 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.46
IFK Varnamo xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at NP3 Arena.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 34% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo?
Record (5 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 3W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.76x the league average against IFK Varnamo's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.91x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
34%
2.95
28%
3.62
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.82
1.46
IFK Varnamo xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
8%
12.70
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.46 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 15W 8D 28L from 51 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 31L across 51 games — 0.75 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 0.75 for IFK Varnamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 7W 6D 13L from 26 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 5W 2D 19L across 26 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.20 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 8D 28L in their last 51 games (1.04 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 9W 11D 31L in their last 51 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or IFK Varnamo away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.04 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IFK Varnamo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Varnamo won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
3
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo?
From 5 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, IFK Varnamo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2026, when IFK Varnamo 3-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 62%, IFK Varnamo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (GIF Sundsvall) and 65% (IFK Varnamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall have failed to score in 27% of games; IFK Varnamo in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play IFK Varnamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 62% of IFK Varnamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 65% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.