Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Oddevold at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Oddevold welcome GIF Sundsvall to Rimnersvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Rimnersvallen this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Oddevold have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Oddevold, 2 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Oddevold winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Oddevold in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 61% versus GIF Sundsvall 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 55% | GIF Sundsvall 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.92 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 1.024 / defence 1.023 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.592 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Oddevold's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Oddevold games / 51 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 63% | Draw 23% | GIF Sundsvall 14%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | GIF Sundsvall 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Oddevold (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oddevold as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 70% | GIF Sundsvall 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 63% | Draw 23% | GIF Sundsvall 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 47% | xG Oddevold 1.92 / GIF Sundsvall 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 1.024 / def 1.023 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.592 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
0.78
GIF Sundsvall xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Rimnersvallen.
Where is Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 63% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (5 meetings): Oddevold 3W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 2W.
What form are Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oddevold's attack at 1.02x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
63%
1.58
23%
4.28
14%
7.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.70
0.78
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
7.40
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
15%
6.82
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
2%
50.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Oddevold and 0.78 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Oddevold have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 20W 17D 14L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 15W 8D 28L from 51 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Oddevold are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIF Sundsvall.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oddevold have posted 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (9W 7D 9L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 8W 2D 15L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Oddevold are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.00 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 20W 17D 14L in their last 51 games (1.51 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 8D 28L in their last 51 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Oddevold's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.36 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Oddevold or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2024, when GIF Sundsvall won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Oddevold
0
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall?
From 5 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-3 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 68%, GIF Sundsvall 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Oddevold) and 48% (GIF Sundsvall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Oddevold's recent matches and 40% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Oddevold's matches and 48% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.