Vasteras SK FK vs Hammarby FF – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Hitachi Energy Arena plays host to Vasteras SK FK versus Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 29 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Vasteras SK FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hitachi Energy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Hammarby FF have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 2 for Hammarby FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Hammarby FF winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Vasteras SK FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 47% versus Hammarby FF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 60% | Hammarby FF 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.18 xG and Hammarby FF 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.905 / defence 0.869 | Hammarby FF attack 1.054 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.296. Data: 23 Vasteras SK FK games / 53 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 36% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 36%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Hammarby FF 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 30% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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