Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Djurgardens IF welcome BK Hacken to 3Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at 3Arena this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
BK Hacken — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Djurgardens IF have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while BK Hacken have managed just 2 wins.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2026, ended 4–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Djurgardens IF and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BK Hacken trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 48% versus BK Hacken 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 48% | BK Hacken 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.15 xG and BK Hacken 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.467 / defence 0.879 | BK Hacken attack 1.195 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.467 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Djurgardens IF games / 49 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 55% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 23%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | BK Hacken 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 50% | BK Hacken 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 55% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.15 / BK Hacken 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.467 / def 0.879 | BK Hacken attack 1.195 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.38
BK Hacken xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 3Arena.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 55% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Record (10 meetings): Djurgardens IF 6W | Draws 2 | BK Hacken 2W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
55%
1.83
22%
4.53
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.53
1.38
BK Hacken xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
12%
8.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
3%
36.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.38 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 48 games, going 23W 12D 13L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.31 PPG from 48 outings (16W 15D 17L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.69 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 11W 8D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.42 points per game from 24 outings (9W 7D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.52 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 23W 12D 13L in their last 48 games (1.69 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 16W 15D 17L in their last 48 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or BK Hacken away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.71 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Djurgardens IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, BK Hacken have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 58%, BK Hacken 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Djurgardens IF) and 46% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; BK Hacken in 33%; BK Hacken in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 42% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 46% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.