Sirius 4-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sirius at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Sirius welcome Vasteras SK FK to Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Sirius have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Sirius have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Vasteras SK FK — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Sirius are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Sirius have won 1, Vasteras SK FK 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Sirius 2–1 Vasteras SK FK — a Sirius win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Sirius in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 77% and Vasteras SK FK 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 70% | Vasteras SK FK 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.55 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.215 / defence 0.803 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.805 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.412. Data: built from Sirius's last 32 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Sirius 52% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 22%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.92 | Draw 3.90 | Vasteras SK FK 4.49. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Sirius's last 10 home games and Vasteras SK FK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sirius 70% (last 10 home games) | Vasteras SK FK 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Sirius 32 games, Vasteras SK FK 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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