Hammarby FF 8-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Orgryte IS at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at 3Arena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena.
Orgryte IS — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Orgryte IS have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hammarby FF at 2.00 PPG versus Orgryte IS's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 50% versus Orgryte IS 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | Orgryte IS 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.61 xG and Orgryte IS 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.319 / defence 0.766 | Orgryte IS attack 0.969 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.412. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Hammarby FF games / 2 Orgryte IS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 50% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 25%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Orgryte IS 4.00. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Hammarby FF 40% | Orgryte IS 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 50% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Hammarby FF 1.61 / Orgryte IS 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.319 / def 0.766 | Orgryte IS attack 0.969 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Orgryte IS xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS?
Hammarby FF 8 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS part of?
Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 50% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hammarby FF and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Orgryte IS in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.32x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
50%
1.98
25%
4.02
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.66
1.05
Orgryte IS xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
5%
20.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.05 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 19W 6D 7L from 32 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 10L across 32 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Orgryte IS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orgryte IS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 12W 2D 2L from 16 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 5W 6D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.66 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 66%.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 19W 6D 7L in their last 32 games (1.97 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Orgryte IS away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.38 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Hammarby FF
0
Draws
0
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Orgryte IS?
From 1 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 1, Orgryte IS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 8-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Orgryte IS?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 44%, Orgryte IS 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Hammarby FF) and 38% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 31%; Orgryte IS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 56% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 38% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 8-1 hammering of Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Orgryte IS 8-1 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.61 xG and Orgryte IS 1.05 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 8-1 for 9 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 6.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.32 / defence 0.77 against Orgryte IS attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 50% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 25%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, Orgryte IS 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.