AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Kalmar FF at Strawberry Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 4W 4D 2L at Strawberry Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Kalmar FF have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kalmar FF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kalmar FF away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AIK Stockholm 1.40 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for AIK Stockholm, 3 for Kalmar FF and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 47% versus Kalmar FF 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 50% | Kalmar FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.11 xG and Kalmar FF 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.044 / defence 0.959 | Kalmar FF attack 0.968 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.367. Kalmar FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 AIK Stockholm games / 2 Kalmar FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 57% | Draw 21% | Kalmar FF 22%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Kalmar FF 4.55. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 50% | Kalmar FF 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 57% | Draw 21% | Kalmar FF 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG AIK Stockholm 2.11 / Kalmar FF 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.044 / def 0.959 | Kalmar FF attack 0.968 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Kalmar FF xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 57% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
Record (9 meetings): AIK Stockholm 3W | Draws 3 | Kalmar FF 3W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (1.04) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.81
22%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
3.38
1.27
Kalmar FF xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
4.44
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
12%
8.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
3%
36.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.27 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, AIK Stockholm have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 13W 9D 8L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Kalmar FF's form line: 8W 6D 16L from 30 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. Kalmar FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, AIK Stockholm are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AIK Stockholm have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (7W 6D 2L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.27 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalmar FF in 70%.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 8W 6D 16L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Kalmar FF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.80 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.07 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AIK Stockholm go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
3
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 47%, Kalmar FF 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for AIK Stockholm and 67% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of AIK Stockholm's games and 80% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of AIK Stockholm's matches and 67% of Kalmar FF's.
Do AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Kalmar FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Kalmar FF 1-0 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 2.11 xG and Kalmar FF 1.27 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Kalmar FF attack 0.97 / defence 1.31, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 57% | Draw 21% | Kalmar FF 22%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 50%, Kalmar FF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.