Degerfors IF 0-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stora Valla this season.
IF Elfsborg have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Degerfors IF. A 1.10 PPG lead over IF Elfsborg (1.50 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, IF Elfsborg in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, IF Elfsborg have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Degerfors IF's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Degerfors IF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus IF Elfsborg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | IF Elfsborg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.19 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.759 / defence 1.143 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.949 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.436. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Degerfors IF games / 32 IF Elfsborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 46%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | IF Elfsborg 2.17. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
IF Elfsborg lead the H2H ledger, but Degerfors IF carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment. Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 55% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Degerfors IF (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 30% | IF Elfsborg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
Multiple data sources are pointing in different directions on the likely outcome — reduce stake size to reflect the analytical uncertainty. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Degerfors IF 1.19 / IF Elfsborg 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.759 / def 1.143 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.949 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.56
IF Elfsborg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Degerfors IF 0 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 29% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (8 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 2 | IF Elfsborg 5W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.76x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.95x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
29%
3.43
25%
3.99
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.75
1.56
IF Elfsborg xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
6%
16.33
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.56 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 16D 21L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.42 PPG from 60 outings (25W 10D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.42 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Degerfors IF's home form reads 10W 8D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.03 points per game from 30 outings (9W 4D 17L).
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.62 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 10D 25L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.27 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
IF Elfsborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-6 on 1 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
7
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, IF Elfsborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Degerfors IF) and 57% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 27% of games; IF Elfsborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 47% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 57% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Degerfors IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Degerfors IF 0-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.19 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.56 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Degerfors IF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 46%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 52%, IF Elfsborg 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.42 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.