BK Hacken 5-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 14 as BK Hacken welcome Ostersunds FK to Bravida Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
BK Hacken are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for BK Hacken, 0 for Ostersunds FK and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2020, ended 2–1 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 60% versus Ostersunds FK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 51% | Ostersunds FK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.82 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.076 / defence 1.123 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.734 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.097. Data: 43 BK Hacken games / 43 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 57% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 17%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Ostersunds FK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 80% | Ostersunds FK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 57% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG BK Hacken 1.82 / Ostersunds FK 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.076 / def 1.123 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.734 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Ostersunds FK xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK?
BK Hacken 5 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK part of?
BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 57% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both BK Hacken and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Ostersunds FK?
Record (2 meetings): BK Hacken 1W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are BK Hacken and Ostersunds FK in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.08x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
57%
1.74
26%
3.90
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.72
0.90
Ostersunds FK xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
3%
36.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.90 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 16W 17D 10L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 10W 12D 21L from 43 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BK Hacken are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (11W 5D 5L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 7D 8L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.98 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 16W 17D 10L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 10W 12D 21L in their last 43 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Ostersunds FK away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.81 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.19 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Ostersunds FK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2021, when BK Hacken won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
BK Hacken
2
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2021, when Ostersunds FK 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Ostersunds FK?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 57%, Ostersunds FK 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (BK Hacken) and 43% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 33%; Ostersunds FK in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 38% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of BK Hacken's recent games and 43% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Ostersunds FK 5-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.82 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.90 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ostersunds FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.73 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 57% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 17%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 51%, Ostersunds FK 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.