Orgryte IS 1-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 48%, yet in-form Orgryte IS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Orgryte IS welcome Malmo FF to Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Orgryte IS have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Malmo FF have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Malmo FF away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Orgryte IS carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Orgryte IS trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games).
Malmo FF trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 66% and Malmo FF 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 59% | Malmo FF 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Orgryte IS surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Malmo FF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.17 xG and Malmo FF 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Malmo FF attack 1.030 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.376. Data: built from Orgryte IS's last 0 games and Malmo FF's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 27% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 48%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.64 | Draw 4.08 | Malmo FF 2.08. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Malmo FF at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orgryte IS (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and Malmo FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orgryte IS 80% (last 10 home games) | Malmo FF 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Orgryte IS 0 games, Malmo FF 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 1 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 27% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Orgryte IS 1.17 / Malmo FF 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Malmo FF attack 1.030 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Malmo FF xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF FAQs
What time does Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF?
Orgryte IS 1 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 1) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 27% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Orgryte IS and Malmo FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (0.85) and Malmo FF's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Orgryte IS's last 0 games and Malmo FF's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
27%
3.64
25%
4.08
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.80
1.63
Malmo FF xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
5%
18.59
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.63 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orgryte IS come into this having played 32 games, going 13W 9D 10L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.66 PPG from 32 outings (14W 11D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.50 PPG, Malmo FF on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Orgryte IS's home form reads 8W 3D 5L across their last 16 home games, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.56 points per game from their last 16 away games (6W 7D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.56 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Early Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
Orgryte IS (Home) vs Malmo FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orgryte IS
Early Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF Form FAQs
What form are Orgryte IS and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 14W 11D 7L in their last 32 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Malmo FF away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.69 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2026. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
1
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Malmo FF?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Orgryte IS have won 0, Malmo FF have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Malmo FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Malmo FF 4-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 75%, Malmo FF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Orgryte IS and 44% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orgryte IS vs Malmo FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orgryte IS and Malmo FF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Orgryte IS's games and 50% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Orgryte IS and Malmo FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Orgryte IS's matches and 44% of Malmo FF's.
Do Orgryte IS and Malmo FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 94% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 75% of Malmo FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and Malmo FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and Malmo FF finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.17 xG and Malmo FF 1.63 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Malmo FF attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 27% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 48%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 59%, Malmo FF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.50 PPG, Malmo FF 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.