Gais 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Gais versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Gais (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, Gais have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Gais against 2.10 for Djurgardens IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gais lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 3–2 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gais — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 50% versus Djurgardens IF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 48% | Djurgardens IF 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.40 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.038 / defence 0.968 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.061 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.307. Data: 30 Gais games / 30 Djurgardens IF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gais 38% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 35%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Djurgardens IF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Gais 50% | Djurgardens IF 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 38% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Gais 1.40 / Djurgardens IF 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.038 / def 0.968 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.061 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Gais (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Djurgardens IF xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Gais vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:30 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Djurgardens IF?
Gais 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Gais vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Gais vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 38% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gais and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Djurgardens IF?
Record (4 meetings): Gais 2W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are Gais and Djurgardens IF in?
Gais (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gais's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.06x) against Gais's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
38%
2.66
28%
3.61
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Gais xG
Total xG
2.75
1.34
Djurgardens IF xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gais and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Gais and 1.34 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gais's recent record stands at 28W 16D 16L from 60 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 29W 15D 16L across 60 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Gais against 1.70 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gais have managed 17W 8D 5L from 30 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 15W 4D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gais are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.62 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 29W 15D 16L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Gais's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.97 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Gais or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 3-0 on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Gais
1
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Djurgardens IF?
From 5 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Gais 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 47%, Djurgardens IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gais) and 50% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 30% of games; Djurgardens IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gais's recent matches and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gais's recent games and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat Gais 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Gais 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.40 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.34 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gais fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 38% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 35%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 48%, Djurgardens IF 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.67 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.