Degerfors IF 0-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and Sirius meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Degerfors IF (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 0W 4D 6L at Stora Valla — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stora Valla this season.
Sirius have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sirius's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.90 for Sirius. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sirius, who have claimed 5 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with Degerfors IF winning.
It is worth noting that Sirius have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Sirius — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 60% and Sirius 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | Sirius 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.44 xG and Sirius 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.870 / defence 0.977 | Sirius attack 1.030 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.412. Data: 30 Degerfors IF games / 30 Sirius games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 37% | Draw 27% | Sirius 36%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Sirius 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 30% | Sirius 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 37% | Draw 27% | Sirius 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Degerfors IF 1.44 / Sirius 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.870 / def 0.977 | Sirius attack 1.030 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sirius xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Sirius kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Sirius kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Degerfors IF 0 - 3 Sirius.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Sirius part of?
Degerfors IF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 37% chance of winning, Sirius a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Degerfors IF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
Record (8 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 2 | Sirius 5W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Sirius in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.87x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.03x) against Degerfors IF's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
37%
2.71
27%
3.66
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.86
1.42
Sirius xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.23
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.42 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 23W 16D 21L from 60 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 26L across 60 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.33 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 10W 8D 12L from 30 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 10W 6D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.67 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sirius in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Sirius have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Sirius away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.27 PPG; Sirius away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 0-3 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
6
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Sirius have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 53% for Degerfors IF, 77% for Sirius — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Degerfors IF) and 63% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Degerfors IF's games and 77% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 63% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Sirius tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sirius in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sirius run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Degerfors IF 0-3 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.44 xG and Sirius 1.42 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sirius outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Sirius attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 37% | Draw 27% | Sirius 36%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 52%, Sirius 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.42 PPG, Sirius 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.