Kalmar FF 0-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Vasteras SK FK travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kalmar FF — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kalmar FF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Kalmar FF have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Kalmar FF have won 1, Vasteras SK FK 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kalmar FF 70% and Vasteras SK FK 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 67% | Vasteras SK FK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.48 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.415. Data: 0 Kalmar FF games / 0 Vasteras SK FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 34%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Vasteras SK FK 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 50% | Vasteras SK FK 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Kalmar FF 1.48 / Vasteras SK FK 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Vasteras SK FK xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Kalmar FF 0 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 38% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (4 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 1 | Vasteras SK FK 2W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.85x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.65
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.86
1.38
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.38 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kalmar FF come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 6D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. Kalmar FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 0.77 PPG from 30 outings (6W 5D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.00 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kalmar FF's home form reads 4W 2D 9L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 0.53 points per game from 15 outings (2W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 0.87 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalmar FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 8W 6D 16L in their last 30 games (1.00 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 5D 19L in their last 30 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Kalmar FF's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 0.93 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2024, when Vasteras SK FK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 0-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 60%, Vasteras SK FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kalmar FF) and 47% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF have failed to score in 33% of games; Vasteras SK FK in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 40% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kalmar FF's matches and 47% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Kalmar FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Kalmar FF 0-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.48 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.38 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kalmar FF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 34%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 67%, Vasteras SK FK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.00 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.