Mjallby AIF 3-0 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 43%, yet in-form Mjallby AIF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Mjallby AIF welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Strandvallen in Allsvenskan (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mjallby AIF have gone 9W 1D 0L — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.20 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Mjallby AIF's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
IF Brommapojkarna — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Mjallby AIF have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Mjallby AIF have won 2, IF Brommapojkarna 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Mjallby AIF 1–0 IF Brommapojkarna — a Mjallby AIF win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 60% versus IF Brommapojkarna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 55%). Note also that IF Brommapojkarna surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Mjallby AIF recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.17 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.872 / defence 0.996 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.014 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.412. Data: built from Mjallby AIF's last 32 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 31% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 43%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.24 | Draw 3.82 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Brommapojkarna are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Mjallby AIF's last 10 home games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mjallby AIF 50% (last 10 home games) | IF Brommapojkarna 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Mjallby AIF 32 games, IF Brommapojkarna 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 3 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 31% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Mjallby AIF 1.17 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.872 / def 0.996 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.014 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.43
IF Brommapojkarna xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna FAQs
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 3) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 31% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mjallby AIF's last 32 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
31%
3.24
26%
3.82
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.59
1.43
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
7%
13.50
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.43 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 37W 14D 9L from 60 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 29L across 60 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IF Brommapojkarna heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 20W 9D 1L from their last 30 home games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 9W 9D 12L across their last 30 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.43 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
Mjallby AIF (Home) vs IF Brommapojkarna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna Form FAQs
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 37W 14D 9L in their last 60 games (2.08 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.30 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Apr 2026, when Mjallby AIF won Mjallby AIF 3-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Mjallby AIF have won 3, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: IF Brommapojkarna 0-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 67%, IF Brommapojkarna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Mjallby AIF) and 50% (IF Brommapojkarna).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Mjallby AIF's games and 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 50% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 73% of IF Brommapojkarna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.17 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.43 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 31% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 43%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 50%, IF Brommapojkarna 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.