Mjallby AIF 1-3 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 2W 1D 7L at Strandvallen — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Djurgardens IF's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Mjallby AIF, 1.60 for Djurgardens IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Mjallby AIF, 3 for Djurgardens IF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 0–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 43% versus Djurgardens IF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 38% | Djurgardens IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.35 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.094 / defence 0.831 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.379 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.306. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Djurgardens IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.379 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Mjallby AIF games / 40 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 34% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 41%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Djurgardens IF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 50% | Djurgardens IF 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 34% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.35 / Djurgardens IF 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.094 / def 0.831 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.379 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Djurgardens IF xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 3 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 34% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (6 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 3W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.38x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
34%
2.92
25%
4.00
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.85
1.50
Djurgardens IF xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
8%
13.04
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.50 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 15D 22L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.78 PPG from 60 outings (32W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.78 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 9W 9D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.37 points per game from 30 outings (11W 8D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.60 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 32W 11D 17L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.20 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Djurgardens IF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, Djurgardens IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjallby AIF) and 40% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 37%; Djurgardens IF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 40% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Mjallby AIF 1-3 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.35 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.50 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.38 / defence 0.78, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 34% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 41%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 38%, Djurgardens IF 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.