Gais 3-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 11 as Gais welcome BK Hacken to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 May 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
BK Hacken — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.64 xG and BK Hacken 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.000 / defence 1.109 | BK Hacken attack 1.113 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.328. Data: 10 Gais games / 40 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 38% | Draw 23% | BK Hacken 38%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | BK Hacken 2.63. The draw (23%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 23% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 38% | Draw 23% | BK Hacken 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Gais 1.64 / BK Hacken 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.000 / def 1.109 | BK Hacken attack 1.113 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Draw (23%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.64
BK Hacken xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs BK Hacken kick off?
Gais vs BK Hacken kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs BK Hacken?
Gais 3 - 0 BK Hacken.
Where is Gais vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs BK Hacken part of?
Gais vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 38% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gais vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Gais and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and BK Hacken in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. BK Hacken away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gais's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
38%
2.60
23%
4.33
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Gais xG
Total xG
3.28
1.64
BK Hacken xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
7%
13.40
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Gais and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Gais and 1.64 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
BK Hacken
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gais and BK Hacken runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Gais won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Gais
0
Draws
1
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and BK Hacken?
From 5 meetings on record, Gais have won 4, BK Hacken have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when BK Hacken 2-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and BK Hacken?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 3-0 hammering of BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat BK Hacken 3-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.64 xG and BK Hacken 1.64 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BK Hacken landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against BK Hacken attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 38% | Draw 23% | BK Hacken 38%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.